Swansea City vs Derby County: Relegation Battle Heats Up on November 25, 2025
On Tuesday, November 25, 2025, at 19:45 UTC, Swansea City will host Derby County in a make-or-break EFL Championship match at the Liberty Stadium. Both clubs are teetering on the edge of season-defining outcomes: Swansea, clinging to 17th place with just four points above the relegation zone, and Derby, chasing a top-half finish after a surprising surge in form. The stakes couldn’t be higher — and the tension is thickening by the hour.
Pressure Cooker at the Liberty
Swansea’s season has unraveled in the most painful way. After winning four, drawing five, and losing seven of their 16 league games, they’ve slipped into a dangerous tailspin. Three straight defeats — including a 4-1 thrashing by Ipswich Town just before the international break — led to the dismissal of manager Alan Sheehan. The team’s home form is a ghost of its past: only two wins in their last 10 matches at the Liberty, with four draws and four losses. Even worse, they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those 10 games. Fans are restless. The stands are quieter. And the clock is ticking toward the winter break.Derby’s Rollercoaster Ride
Meanwhile, Derby County have been the season’s most unpredictable visitors. They entered the international window on a five-match winning streak — a run that included a 2-1 away win at Stoke and a 3-2 thriller at Rotherham. But then came the collapse: a 3-2 home loss to Watford. Leading 2-0 through goals from Dion Sanderson and Sondre Langas, they surrendered a late brace from Edo Kayembe. Still, their away record remains strong: four wins, three draws, three losses in 10 road trips. That’s better than Swansea’s home form — and it’s why bookmakers are giving them a real shot.Head-to-Head History: Swansea’s Dominance, Derby’s Grit
The last five meetings tell a clear story: Swansea City has dominated. Three wins, one draw, one loss — a 60% win rate. They’ve scored six goals to Derby’s four. The April 5, 2025, 1-0 home win sealed a league double over the Rams. But here’s the twist: Derby’s last win against Swansea? February 2020. Nearly six years ago. That’s why this match feels like a reset point.
Numbers Don’t Lie — But They Don’t Tell the Whole Story
Statistically, it’s messy. Swansea control possession (53.3% vs. 44.0%) and pass more (395.7 vs. 333.3 per game). But Derby’s attack is sharper: 1.7 goals per match versus Swansea’s 0.7. Derby also wins more duels (61.7% vs. 53.3%). Yet, they concede 3.0 goals per game — more than any team in the Championship’s top half. Swansea, meanwhile, concede just 0.7 per game at home. Both teams consistently see both teams score: 90% of Swansea’s home games and 70% of Derby’s away matches feature goals at both ends. Over 2.5 goals have landed in 60% of Swansea’s home games — and 50% of Derby’s away fixtures. Expect fireworks.Expert Predictions: Contradictions and Clues
The predictions are all over the place. Sportsmole boldly forecasts a 1-2 away win for Derby, citing their two recent away wins and Swansea’s three-game losing streak. Forebet gives Derby a 44% chance — higher than Swansea’s 33%. EaglePredict.com says draw. FootballPredictions.net backs Swansea at 23/20 odds. The betting markets are almost perfectly split: Swansea at 2.17 to win, Derby at 3.20, and the draw at 3.40. It’s a coin flip with high stakes.
Why This Match Matters Beyond the Table
This isn’t just about points. It’s about momentum, identity, and survival. For Swansea, a win could spark a revival — a chance to climb out of the relegation scrap and rebuild confidence under interim leadership. A loss? It could trigger panic. A third straight defeat would put them within two points of 21st place. For Derby, a win would be their first over Swansea since 2020 — a psychological breakthrough that could propel them into the playoff conversation. A draw? Still useful. A loss? It would be a missed opportunity after their brilliant away form.And then there’s the human factor. Who steps up? Who cracks under pressure? The players who’ve been there before — like Swansea’s veteran defender Luca Kjerrumgaard, who scored in the Watford comeback — or Derby’s emerging striker Sondre Langas, whose two goals against Watford showed composure beyond his years.
What’s Next?
If Swansea wins, expect a surge in confidence and a possible extension for interim boss John Gorman (who’s stepping in after Sheehan’s exit). If Derby wins, the Rams’ management will likely begin serious talks about a permanent manager — with names like Nigel Clough already being floated. Either way, the winter transfer window will be shaped by this match’s outcome.Frequently Asked Questions
How does this match affect Swansea City’s relegation chances?
A win would lift Swansea to 15th place and push them five points clear of the drop zone — a crucial buffer before the winter break. A loss, however, would leave them just two points above 21st place, making every subsequent game a potential survival battle. With only 14 matches left, every point matters more than ever.
Why is Derby County considered a threat despite conceding so many goals?
Derby’s away form is their lifeline. They’ve won four of their last 10 away games, including victories against top-10 sides. Their attack, led by Langas and Dion Sanderson, is clinical in transition. Even with a leaky defense, their ability to score first and ride pressure — as seen in their 2-1 win at Stoke — makes them dangerous on the road.
What’s the significance of the 90% both teams score rate in Swansea’s home games?
It means defensive solidity is rare at the Liberty. Swansea’s defense is porous, and opponents know it. Derby’s high-pressing style could exploit this — especially if they score early. If the Rams net first, expect a high-scoring, chaotic game. The last five home games at Swansea have all ended 2-1, 3-2, or higher.
Could this match decide the next manager for either club?
Absolutely. A win for Swansea could buy interim boss John Gorman time, while a loss might accelerate a search for a permanent replacement. For Derby, a victory would strengthen the case for promoting from within — possibly to Nigel Clough — while a defeat could lead to a high-profile hire like Paul Heckingbottom or Darren Moore.
What’s the historical context of this rivalry?
Derby and Swansea have clashed 17 times since 2000, with Swansea winning nine, Derby four, and four draws. But since 2020, Swansea have won four of five. This match is Derby’s chance to break that streak — and to erase the memory of their 2020 home loss to Swansea. The psychological edge has shifted, but the rivalry remains heated.
Is this match a potential cup tie preview?
Not directly — but it’s a strong indicator of form heading into the FA Cup. Both clubs are still in the competition, and a dramatic win here could boost morale for a deep cup run. A 2-1 result, for example, might mirror how they’d handle knockout pressure — especially if it comes from behind.
